According to a recent report by industry association SolarPowerEurope (SPE), new solar PV installations in the EU are expected to reach 65.5GW by 2024.
Europe has experienced years of rapid growth and double-digit increases over previous years, but its solar growth will slow by 92% compared to growth between 2021 and 2023. Last year's solar additions set a record of 62.8GW, and this year's increase is just 4.4 percent, the lowest market growth rate since 2017.
While new additions to solar PV in the EU hit a new record, their year-on-year growth rate has fallen to single digits.
For SolarPowerEurope, the slowdown is no surprise. "Following the solar boom during the gas crisis, the urgency for citizens to use solar energy has diminished as bills normalise," the EU Solar Market Outlook report said. "Developers face challenges. The energy system has not kept up with the solar growth curve, and as grid and flexibility bottlenecks tighten, it becomes more difficult to build reliable utility-scale solar.
According to SPE, the residential roof market capacity is down nearly 5GW from 2023 and will increase by 12.8GW in 2024.
This decline is partly due to the removal of incentives for rooftop solar (for example, the Netherlands will eliminate its net metering scheme for residential solar in 2027), leading to a decline in residential solar generation in Germany, Austria, Italy, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Spain and Hungary.
The share of residential solar will shrink from 28% last year to 20% in 2024.
The slowdown in solar PV growth in 2024 and the hindered development of residential solar also affected Europe's largest market.
The Netherlands has seen the biggest decline, with a loss of 1.8GW per year since 2023, while growth in the other five markets has been "modest," the report said. France will see the largest increase, adding 1.5GW in 2024.
Germany (16.1GW in 2024) continues to be the largest solar PV market in the EU, followed by Spain (9.3GW) and Italy (6.4GW).
Looking ahead, the report predicts that solar PV capacity will continue to grow at a single-digit rate of 3-7% between 2025 and 2028. SPE said this would still allow the EU to meet its 2030 solar PV capacity target of 750GW, as the association expects solar PV capacity to reach 816GW by 2030. However, the trade body warned that Europe could still miss its target by 100GW if it goes the wrong way.
The industry association forecasts that the 27 EU member states will add 91.9GW of solar PV capacity by 2030.
Post time: Dec-30-2024