The reserve is close to full capacity, liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers are stuck in the port, and the price of natural gas keeps falling. Seeing these recent news, people may think that after several months of energy crisis, Europeans can finally relax, and even sigh: Is Europe out of the crisis? However, many analysts gave negative answers.
“Europe is not out of the woods yet,” said Nicolina Bromand, an analyst at Norwegian Lyestad Energy Company. “With the continuous decline of Russian gas supply, the winter of 2023 will be more difficult.”
Elie Rubin of EBW Group, an American energy consultancy, said that the price curve will not be stable in the negative range. The futures price that plunged before was only a “short-term imbalance between supply and demand”, and the long-term demand has not changed, so it will not fundamentally affect the price of natural gas.
The Financial Times reported on November 3 that the International Energy Agency (IEA) “sounded the alarm” for the supply of natural gas in Europe next year, warning European leaders not to be complacent because of the recent price drop, and urging them to take immediate action to ensure the supply next winter.
Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency, said on November 3rd that, considering the challenge of replenishing natural gas stocks from next spring, European stocks may only reach 65% of storage capacity at this time next year. He pointed out that the International Energy Agency expects a supply gap of about 30 billion cubic meters, because unlike in 2022, Russia’s exports are likely to have been close to zero since the beginning of the year.
Birol said: “Risks have appeared on the horizon, and we believe that the natural gas market will remain tense and volatile. This is a wake-up call for next winter, because we believe that we need to take immediate action now to avoid a shortage next year. “
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Post time: Nov-09-2022